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Study Suggests EVs Will Account For Over Half Of Light Vehicle Sales By 2026

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If there’s one thing that’s currently very unclear in the automotive world, it’s just how many people will be buying electric vehicles in the coming years. Recent studies have been all over the map in that regard, and now we have another new one to add to the list – a forecast from Boston Consulting Group, which suggests that EVs will account for more than one-half of global light vehicle sales by the year 2026.

Just last year, the same group projected that EVs would make up just one-third of total global light vehicle sales by 2025, but this latest update notes that this huge bump will be fueled largely by sales in China and Europe. Another driving factor in the transition is the billions of dollars automakers are spending to develop EVs, as well as forthcoming incentives.

Boston Consulting Group predicts that this transition will take place in three distinct phases – first, fueled by those motivated by incentives and early adopters, followed by ownership cost-driven electrification, and finally, supply-driven electrification. By 2023, BCG expects that there will be over 300 EV models on the market, so consumers will have a number of viable options.

The group also expects battery pack costs to drop significantly by 2023, which will make EVs financially viable alternatives to ICE-powered vehicles. This, it believes, will lead to a dramatic shift. While 91 percent of U.S. light vehicle sales in 2020 consisted of ICE vehicles, it believes that number will plunge to just 2 percent by 2035. Meanwhile, Europe’s 79 percent figure will drop to just 4 percent.

There are, of course, a few obstacles that stand in the way of this mass EV adoption prediction. A recent poll showed that 74 percent of U.S. consumers want an ICE-powered vehicle to be their next purchase, while another study indicated that 59 percent of Americans are still unsure about electric vehicles. Meanwhile, yet another study found that while Americans and Europeans are receptive to the idea of owning an EV, most are still very much price-conscious.

We’ll have more on the future of the EV market soon, so be sure and subscribe to Ford Authority for 24/7 Ford news coverage.

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Brett's lost track of all the Fords he's owned over the years and how much he's spent modifying them, but his current money pits include an S550 Mustang and 13th gen F-150.

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Comments

  1. Gregg Tonkin

    The survey must have been done in Boston.

    Reply
    1. Thurston Munn

      No kidding, where all the liberal greenies live !! They have no clue the distances and usage we have with our vehicles here in the midwest (OK/TX). Still no one is saying how they are going to recharge all of these EVs’. There is not enough GW available for it.

      Reply
    2. NCEcoBoost

      Probably California, which I’m sick and tired of hearing about.

      Reply
  2. Andrew

    I don’t see how the study proves that we will want evs. Even in the article they state that consumers want ICE powered vehicles. The only advantage I see is that they will give you money to buy one which is a terrible idea. I don’t see how taking tax dollars from you to give you incentives is cost effective in the least. The only thing I got from this is incentives from the government will attempt to drive down the price so hopefully consumers will buy them at the lower price.

    Reply
  3. whypac

    When are people going to realize EV’s only work as advertised in warm climates: California, Florida, or similar to these. As temperature drops, so does efficiency and range, and at a certain temperature and below, which I’m too lazy to go lookup, loss is 40% or more.

    So your full charged all electric F-150, with 400 mile range (I made this up), which drops to 200 miles when towing, and then try to do this in cold weather, 50 miles down the road you will be out of power, looking for charging station that will take 2 hours charge you back up. Have fun with that.

    Reply
  4. Njia

    I have a Mustang Mach E. That said, color me “skeptical” of this survey. While I have no doubt whatsoever that EVs will be dramatically better than they are by 2025 (or so), and so will the charging infrastructure, 50% seems like a pipe dream.

    Reply
    1. Ryan

      How do you like the Mach E?

      Reply
      1. Njia

        Best car I’ve ever owned. The in-vehicle software is very good, but the companion mobile app (FordPass) needs some work. I get pretty close to the promised battery range, provided that the weather is above about 60 F.

        The biggest benefit is being able to charge my vehicle in my own garage overnight and on weekends. DTE Energy gave a “Time-of-Day” rate plan that lowers my energy cost to just $0.125/kWh. On a per mile basis, that puts my cost per mile driven around 40% of the Cadillac XT5 I replaced with the Mach E.

        My biggest gripe is the Electrify America network. Here in Michigan, it really sucks. ChargePoint is a much better network and the charging stations just work.

        Reply
        1. NCEcoBoost

          FordPass is a total joke. Yesterday, I had to buy a not-yet-ready-for new smartphone because the teenage hamsters running tech at Ford decided that a revision to FP was in order and made it non-compatible with any phone roughly 5 years or more old. As if the phone makers don’t encourage replacements enough, but now carmakers? Blasphemous. GM’s OnStar doesn’t do that. No more Fords for me!

          Reply
  5. Todd Priest

    Nonsense.

    Reply
  6. Stephen Ketterer

    The future of the EV [at least in the U.S.] hinges solely on the following points:
    1. The capacity of our power grid and the viability of electric power sources
    2. The convenience factor associated with vehicle range and charge time/availability
    3. The cost of buying an EV and paying for electric electric power

    Right now, I’d say “over 50% sales being EVs” is a long shot for sure.

    Reply
    1. Njia

      Point 1 isn’t really an issue in the short term. There aren’t that many EVs on the road right now, so the grid will hold up just fine for the time being.

      Point 2 is dead-on. I’ve done a few road trips in my Mach E, and it’s a huge issue.

      Point 3 is about half right: costs for EVs are definitely higher; no doubt about it. But … most electric utility providers will offer significant discounts based on several different options for EV owners so they can charge at home. DC Fast Charging stations are definitely pricey – on par with gasoline. But I’ve had my car for 2 months and I’ve used Electrify America and ChargePoint networks just 6 times (during road trips).

      Reply
  7. Greggt

    You forgot one thing,
    4, The willingness of the general public to accept an EV.

    Reply
    1. Njia

      This is no small thing. One of the issues with EV adoption, I think, is that the mental model of ownership is based on ICE vehicles. For instance, people think in terms of range (which is correct), but some of that issue is mitigated by the ability to have a fully-charged battery every morning, or being able to recharge when at the office or shopping center, etc. (and sometimes for free).

      Compare that to the need to stop at a gas station every time for an ICE vehicle; although gassing up is fast (5-10 minutes plus waiting for an open pump if you are a e.g. Costco customer, which may not be trivial) we don’t even give a second thought to just how *inconvenient* it is to stop every time – it’s just “something we have to do.” Most EV owners normally don’t need to stop at a bespoke charging station unless we’re on the road.

      Reply
  8. Me

    I’d like to have some of what they’re smoking.

    Reply
  9. NCEcoBoost

    Total. Hogwash. Pie-in-the-sky. And a bunch of crapola.

    Reply
  10. RenJ24

    What about all the city dwellers that don’t even have their own driveways. How are they supposed to recharge their EV’s?

    Reply
  11. Bruce Holberg

    First, who paid for the study?
    Second, it was a global study. Something tells me that the Chinese and Europeans are much more enthusiastic about EVs than Americans.
    Some folks, greenies, just assume this is a great solution and are blind to the many real-world drawbacks and impracticalities.

    Reply
    1. Lee Glidewell

      Good question Bruce, regardless, the study is WRONG!

      Reply
  12. Mark

    Publishing things like this, that are not factual, is wrong for your publication. This is clickbait, and you know it, shame on you.

    Reply
  13. Stu Brear

    I am surprised by the negativity of the comments on EV uptake. Jay Leno reviewed the Mach E recently with Ford CEO Jim Farley and has had electric cars in his collection for years. His observation was that we are entering the future of automobiles and will see the decline of ICE powered cars just as blacksmiths once saw the decline in the need for horseshoes and they opened gas stations.
    I now own a Mach E and live in Canada, albeit a very southern part of it. Our weather ranges from summer heat in the 90’s F to winter cold below -20F at times.
    The range anxiety is a big news issue but less and less of a practical issue here as more public charging stations are being deployed everywhere and yes, your house is already a charging station for any Mach E. There are over 2 million homes and growing in Ontario. Each has an outlet.
    The Mac E carries a portable charger kit with 115v/230v adapter cords in the rear floor storage area. Your cottage, marina, condo and campground have outlets.
    I installed a level 2 charging station at our home and will have recouped that cost in gasoline savings within two months. My province has been preparing for the increase of clean generation electricity supply for years. Having once worked in the solar power industry, what you don’t see are the huge areas of flat roof buildings that are covered in solar panels. The USA has them and wind turbines too.
    We have owned ICE powered Fords from a 1964 6 cylinder Fairlane to a 2010 Shelby GT500 and many others in between since my teen years. Have I lost my love of all non-electric cars, of course not, wrenching is my hobby and racing is my love affair.
    But, the future is here now and to sit back and deny the reality is an unsupportable argument.
    New jobs will be in manufacturing batteries, charging stations and their components, construction and electrical infrastructure upgrades to existing gas stations, hotels, parking lots and garages. It goes on and on. If you are unemployed or just looking for new opportunities, join it, help build it or create it.

    Reply
  14. Tigger

    Sounds like a heaping pile of BS to me. Next year the same company will tell us EV sales will only be 20 percent of the market.

    Reply
  15. Greggt

    ” If you are unemployed or just looking for new opportunities, join it, help build it or create it.”

    Sorry but what a crock!
    Where are those jobs for the unemployed today….China?

    Reply

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