When the Ford F-150 Lightning was revealed last week, it caused quite a stir in the automotive world. Though there are several all-electric trucks in the works from a number of other manufacturers, electrifying the best-selling vehicle in America is an entirely different thing altogether. It means that Ford is serious about EVs, and judging by the number of reservations it’s received for the Lightning so far, quite a few consumers are as well. Thus, it’s not really a surprise that Ford predicts that EVs will account for 30 percent of sales in the full-size truck segment by 2030.
The automaker shared this tidbit at this week’s Capital Markets Day presentation, where it also provided us with a bevy of news surrounding its future plans, much of that revolving around EVs. That includes the fact that Ford expects to reduce its EV battery costs by 40 percent in the coming years, said that it’s ramping up its investment into EVs again, revealed its new IonBoost battery packs, announced a platform dedicated to commercial vehicles and fleet services, revealed that an all-electric Ford Explorer is in the works, and introduced a brand new, connected vehicle platform called Blue Oval Intelligence.
However, the news that Ford expects all-electric pickups to account for 30 percent of the full-size truck segment by 2030 is certainly notable, especially if we translate the percentage into actual sales figures. Assuming full-size truck sales are similar in 2030 to what they were in 2020, that means a total of 700,000 pickups sold that year would be electric if Ford’s prediction comes true.
That’s a large number, though this sort of bold prediction surrounding EVs is nothing new. While EV sales continue to rise rapidly, they still represent a small percentage of the overall market. However, if current trends continue, some recent studies indicate that there could be 145 million EVs on the road, globally, by 2030, and that EVs could account for over half of total light-vehicle sales as early as 2026. Of course, this is all contingent on overcoming a number of concerns shoppers have with electric vehicles.
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Comments
If you take the Mustang Mach E as an example of non Tesla electric vehicle demand, Ford has already filled it’s Mach E pre-orders, Mach Es are showing up on dealers lots in places like Ontario Canada unsold, and Ford has started shipping them to places like Europe. So much for Ford’s first electric vehicle launch and popularity. In a year, sales of Mach Es are going to be nil. Other then Tesla , the electric vehicle markets are low demand niche markets, why do you think all non Tesla electric vehicle manufactures ( including Ford’s announcement about the limited production of the electric F150 ) keep production limited to keep demand and prices up, and use it as a marketing tool? Initial sales of the electric F150 will be high because of the pent up demand, just like the Mach E, but after that demand has been filled?????
I suspect the guesstimate is understated….. the automotive evolution towards BEV could be derailed if hydrogen powered vehicles were ever actively promoted. They are cleaner still, use an abundant fuel source and would not tax the electrical gird at all… all they need are fueling stations which already exist for gas/diesel to be converted to hydrogen. That said, clearly some of you are still playing your 8 tracks having missed cassettes, CD’s, flash drives and streaming services. It’s nice some of you still live in Mom and Dad’s basement though you really do need to get out more.
I feel that 30% is a low number. General Motors is gearing up the previously shuttered Oshawa, Ontario plant to build ICE and EVs. These EVs would be great for local delivery firms and would need no trips to the gas station. Just plug ’em in each night.