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U.S. Auto Market Might Not Reach EV Majority Until 2036

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A number of recent studies predict significant growth in global EV sales in the coming years. One such study found that over half of light-vehicle sales worldwide will consist of electric vehicles by 2026, while another predicts that there will be 145 million EVs on the road by 2030. But the real question is, when will EV sales overtake ICE-powered vehicles in the U.S. auto market? And the answer, it seems, is not anytime soon.

According to a new study from consultants Ernst & Young LLP seen by Bloomberg, global EV sales will reach majority status by 2033. However, the study finds that EV sales won’t outpace ICE vehicles until 2036 in the U.S., mostly due to the fact that the country hasn’t committed to electric vehicles until just recently, while places like Europe and China passed tougher government mandates years ago. It’s predicted that Europe will reach this tipping point by 2028, with China following in 2033.

“The regulatory environment from the Biden administration we view as a big contributor because he has ambitious targets,” said Randy Miller, Ernst & Young’s global advanced manufacturing and mobility leader. “That impact in the Americas will have a supercharging effect.” This is especially true of younger people. “The view from the millennials that we’re seeing is clearly more inclined to want to buy EVs,” Miller said.

In addition to these factors, U.S. auto market shoppers are also being influenced by government incentives and a pair of states that recently set end dates for the sale of new ICE-powered vehicles – California and Massachusetts.

Meanwhile, new models like the Ford F-150 Lightning and E-Transit are also attracting consumer interest. In fact, Ford expects that 30 percent of the full-size truck market will consist of EVs by 2030 and that 70 percent of the full-size van market will go to EVs by the same year. Some, including ChargePoint CEO Pasquale Romano, also believe that electric pickups will be the driving force behind EV adoption in America, which could accelerate these predictions a bit.

We’ll have more on the state of the EV market soon, so be sure and subscribe to Ford Authority for ongoing Ford news coverage.

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Brett's lost track of all the Fords he's owned over the years and how much he's spent modifying them, but his current money pits include an S550 Mustang and 13th gen F-150.

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Comments

  1. Greg Jones

    Good to hear.

    Reply
  2. Barry

    Let me guess… no parts and no large parking lots to store the unfinished vehicles.
    More technology for electric vehicles = more computer chips required
    I think we have seen this movie before and know the ending.

    Currently, continuing to fill up parking lots around assembly plants with unfinished vehicles.
    Dealerships have plenty of parking lot space.

    Reply
  3. Stephen Ketterer

    Hopefully by then, a more viable solution may come into fruition. One that’s based on common sense and not just a propaganda-fueled pyramid scheme for the green elitists.

    Reply
    1. Thurston Munn

      Absolutely correct !!!

      Reply
    2. GreggT

      You are so right!!

      Reply
  4. Mark B

    Parity perception has to be reached by the marketplace, and when that happens, the attractiveness of EV’s will rise.

    For the average person, making a statement isn’t top of mind.

    Reply
  5. Tigger

    I think that even 2036 is generous.

    Reply
  6. Dennis Cirucci

    All I can say is not a chance! Where do the people making these pie in the sky predictions of EV growth numbers expect us to get all the nickel, lithium and cobalt to make the EV batteries? And once the anti ICE greenies take time to learn how much destruction of land, waters, and ecosystems happens when these minerals are mined, new mines will never be approved, not to mention the 16years +/- it takes to go from sourcing the minerals to engineering, funding and extraction. Of course the battery plants to do all the battery production needed, don’t exist today either. And finally let’s see how fast office buildings and shopping centers fill their parking lots with EV chargers. Let’s start with California where they don’t have enough power to keep the lights on, let alone seeing how rolling blackouts work with millions of EV’s plugged in to be charged. Better shoot for the year 2100.

    Reply
  7. Lee

    …”EVs won’t reach majority until 2036″… I’ve got fifty, nah, make it a Benjamin that says they never will.

    Reply
  8. Mike says..

    Haters hate still alive with you? On other news of interest, a Canadian (international) company is committing to add 100 fast charge stations at their ICE stores from Vancouver Island to Vancouver mainland and the interior of the province… none more than 150 klm apart and will due the task in 20 minutes. This will offset the range worries and greatly step up convenience for drivers in B.C. which in Vancouver’s case, has a much higher BEV take up than most other localities. Did I mention this is a ICE fuel service and convenience company that clearly is looking ahead of the curve unlike most of this blogs commenters are. Me thinks some of you are going to sound pretty silly when you buy your first BEV down the road…..

    Reply
    1. Lee

      Hate? Nah, more like disgust that all the people espousing the belief that buying EVs is saving the planet. Oxymoronic it is.
      “down the road when you buy your first BEV”.
      I’ve got another Benjamin that says y’all and I will be having snowball fights in Hades before that happens.

      Reply

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