The 16 championship-eligible drivers able to compete in the 2024 Playoffs for the first round will soon be decided. In fact, just two races stand between the Cup Series field and the conclusion of the regular season, and updated Playoff standings show which NASCAR Ford drivers are likely to make the cut after Daytona on August 24th, 2024 – and which ones are in trouble.
The latest projected Playoff standings by Racing Insights from NASCAR.com use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the Playoffs on points. There are some NASCAR Ford drivers who are guaranteed a spot, having already won a point-paying race throughout the regular season, and a few that might need a win to get in.
This includes Ryan Blaney, defending champion and driver of the No. 12 Ford Mustang Dark Horse; Brad Keselowski, driver of the No. 6 Mustang; Joey Logano, driver of the No. 22 Mustang; and Austin Cindric, driver of the No. 2 Mustang. Each of these four drivers has a 100 percent probability of making the Round of 16 when the regular season wraps up after Daytona and Darlington.
Chris Buescher, driver of the No. 17 Mustang, will likely make it in, but he doesn’t have a win to show for his efforts this season. He currently has a 70.15 percent chance of making the Round of 16 – down 1.5 percent from pre-Michigan predictions. Even so, he’s expected to be one of the last four in, assuming he doesn’t win at Daytona this weekend, which would guarantee him a spot.
Meanwhile, Ryan Preece, driver of the No. 41 Mustang, and Michael McDowell, driver of the No. 34 Mustang, are in dire straights and are highly unlikely to make the Playoffs without a win. Specifically, McDowell has a 3.54 percent chance of making it in without a victory, and Preece has a slim 2.36 percent chance of making it happen.
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