There are just four races left before the Cup Series Playoff field is set. With each track a battleground, Richmond Raceway on Sunday, August 11th, 2024 will be a critical race for drivers trying to make the title run. Several NASCAR Ford drivers are safe and locked in, but others aren’t, so let’s take a look at how the NASCAR Ford Playoff picture might look after this weekend.
Racing Insights on NASCAR.com released a projected Playoff field post-Richmond. The results are compiled using a combination of current standings and historical performance at the track to determine the probability of each driver winning or racing their way into the Playoffs on points.
Of course, as previously mentioned, there are quite a few NASCAR Ford drivers already guaranteed a spot with the “win and you’re in” system. Ryan Blaney, driver of the No. 12 Mustang Dark Horse and defending series champion is solidly in the picture with several wins this year. Brad Keselowski, driver of the No. 6 Mustang, has been quietly consistent all year and has one win, and Joey Logano’s No. 22 Mustang has certainly been a force to be reckoned with, locked in on wins as well. Austin Cindric’s No. 2 Mustang is also locked in with a single win this season.
But things don’t look as good for Chris Buescher. He’s come close to victory this year, but ended up losing out in the closest finish in NASCAR history. Buescher could get in on points, but winning Richmond in the No. 17 Mustang – which he’s done before – will give him some breathing room heading into wildcard tracks like Daytona in a few weeks. Even so, he has a 76.8 percent chance of making the field.
Unfortunately, Josh Berry’s No. 4 NASCAR Ford team will likely be shut out of the Playoffs. He’s been fast all year, but doesn’t have a win to show for it, either. He’s only given a 6.53 percent chance of making the cut, but anything’s possible.
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