Six drivers from the NASCAR Ford stable made the Round of 16 in the 2024 Playoffs. With just 10 races left in the 2024 Cup Series season, all eyes are on the final race at Phoenix, and simulations can help predict what’s going to happen when the checkered flag finally falls in November.
NASCAR.com ran 10,000 simulations and compiled the results in a recent report. The simulations account for a driver’s prior performance (both overall and at each specific track type) to estimate their probability of finishing in each spot each race, then uses those numbers to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times.
Ryan Blaney, driver of the No. 12 Ford Mustang Dark Horse, is in the best position to win the 2024 championship. He has an 80 percent chance of advancing to the next round and a five percent chance of winning the championship. However, he’ll need to pull himself out of his recent slump to make that five percent chance a reality.
Similarly, Brad Keselowski needs decent finishes to advance past the Round of 16. He’ll need to score at least one top 10 finish, granting him an 83 percent chance of advancing. Las Vegas Motor Speedway will be a crucial race for him, and he’s always good at Talladega.
Joey Logano needs to “get the most out of Bristol.” He hasn’t been great on road courses, and the short oval might give him the best shot he has at the championship. Chase Briscoe needs to put his No. 14 NASCAR Ford to the test and excel at short tracks if he wants to make it past the first round – but even if he does, he only has a 0.6 percent chance of winning the overall title.
Austin Cindric has a decent shot of advancing to the next round of Playoffs, but he’ll need to perform well at Talladega and keep his title bid going despite a rollercoaster of a 2024 racing season. Harrison Burton, meanwhile, still finds himself at the bottom of the list, with an unfortunate zero percent chance of winning the championship, but if he “drives the wheels off” is No. 21 Mustang, he might just shock the stock car racing world with what he can do.
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