It’s hard to imagine today, but it wasn’t that long ago when finding a new vehicle of any kind was a difficult task. New vehicle production took years to recover from various plant shutdowns and supply chain issues stemming from the pandemic, but over the course of 2024, that has changed dramatically – now, new vehicle inventory has soared back not only to previous levels, but in some cases, historic highs. That has been the case with new Ford inventory for some time as well, and it swelled yet again in the month of September.
In July, new Ford inventory levels closed out the month with an 85 days’ supply (including in-stock inventory and in-transit vehicles), and in August, that figure rose to a 105 days’ supply – both far above the industry average. Now, according to data from Cox Automotive, new Ford inventory in September was even higher at a 112 days’ supply – trailing only Jaguar (155 days’ supply), Lincoln (147), Alfa Romeo (144), Ram (142), Volvo (140), Dodge (131), Jeep (126), and Mini (125). Last month, the overall industry average came in at an 81 days’ supply, highlighting just how far off these brands are from the mean.
It’s also worth noting that the overall average of an 81 days’ supply is nearly identical to October 2019’s 80 days’ supply, signaling that overall, the automotive industry is getting much closer to normal, in general, though it’s also two days higher than August 2024. Regardless, sales declined by 5.7 percent as well, while the total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles opened October at 2.76 million units – 25 percent higher than last year, but also down 20 percent from 2019 levels.
As for incentive spending, it rose from 4.8 percent in September 2023 and 7.2 percent in August 2024 to 7.3 percent of the average transaction price ($3,522) last month – though it still trails far behind the 10.3 percent mark set in September 2019. Despite all of this, average transaction pricing hasn’t moved downward much over the course of 2024, and in fact, was up two percent versus August and 0.9 percent compared to a year ago, coming in at $47,823.
Comments
When I see these high numbers of inventory and that prices aren’t coming down that much, I’m starting to think that manufacturers are colluding to artificially keep prices high. Where is the DOJ when you actually need them to do something? Here we are nearing the end of calendar year with next year’s vehicles soon to come out and manufacturers are still sitting on piles of unsold inventory. Everything about this screams SALE SALE SALE. And yet, there aren’t. The whole thing smells bad.
I agree 100%. And I’ve been saying this for 4 years. I think most of the COVID supply shortages were a collusive lie too. And all automakers have been gouging since then. Ford refuses to discount reasonably so no wonder inventory is stacking up. They have to pay for the EV blunder and all those recalls and that’s a BIG problem.
Your comment further makes me believe that the federal government may be part of the collusion. That is, they are looking the other way in order to help offset the disastrous EV rollout and the billions and billions in losses the manufacturing lemmings took with it. They may collectively be siphoning more money from the average Joe to pay for their “Green New Deal” fantasy.
So the Ford dealers might have to give real discounts. Hope they all the big dealers loose massive amount of money this year after their treatment of people when production was slim. FYI Ford is not the only one. Toyota and others are seeing the same thing. Economy is running out of money and interest rates are way too high.
I agree but the stock market is hitting new highs almost daily and folks feel rich. So they go and overspend on new wheels that they really can’t afford to. And then whine about the price of breakfast cereal the next day.