It’s no secret that United Auto Workers (UAW) President Shawn Fain isn’t a fan of U.S. President Donald Trump, as the two exchanged their fair share of criticisms during the latter’s campaign throughout 2024. Fain even went so far as to release a lengthy statement condemning Trump, calling him a “SCAB” and saying that “Donald Trump is a billionaire, and that’s who he represents. If Donald Trump ever worked in an auto plant, he wouldn’t be a UAW member. He’d be a company man, trying to squeeze the American autoworker. Donald Trump stands against everything the UAW stands for.” However, it seems as if the two agree on at least on particular hot topic these days – tariffs.
According to NPR, Fain referred to global tariffs as “reckless” in a recent interview, but he also supports tariffs on vehicles built by U.S.-based automakers Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis in other countries that are then sold in America. The reasoning behind this support is obvious – if automakers move production to the U.S., it benefits the UAW in a big way by expanding its membership base and increasing the member dues that the union collects.
“We’ve sat here for the last 30 plus years, with the inception of [the North American Free Trade Agreement] back in 1993-94, and watched our manufacturing base in this country disappear,” Fain said, though he’s also concerned about the potential that tariffs might increase costs for consumers. “This is the problem with our system,” he said. It’s so upside down. The billionaire class and the corporate class, they always get their profits. They always take their cut, and they always pass anything bad on to consumers. The point of tariffs is to eliminate the race to the bottom where we’re exploiting people.”
“The sad reality of this is [the idea that] it’s a bad thing that we put manufacturing back in this country because labor is expensive,” Fain added. “That is pathetic. I believe it was one of the former presidents [who] said, I pity the businessman that wants to make a coat so cheap that the person making the coat will starve in the process. I mean, that is sad.”
As for Ford, it has largely resigned to the fact that it will be paying tariffs on imported vehicles and major components, but is lobbying the Trump administration to leave out levies on lower-cost parts built in places like Mexico using cheaper labor. At the same time, CEO Jim Farley recently stated that the impact of these tariffs will be “significant,” even though he also supports them.
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He’s also dumber than dumb. It’ll take YEARS to move production back to the US, if it ever happens.
It will likely settle that the world is more regionally split for manufacturing when the dust settles, which is why Trump is trying to negotiate a better deal for us. Think more North America, down through Central America, maybe even parts of South America as one economic region. The US Navy would then patrol this side of the global with more focus instead of trying to be as spread out around the global to secure free trade for everyone else like we have since Bretton Woods.
I can’t imagine too many countries in this hemisphere going along with that. It wouldn’t be popular in this country either, given the response to NAFTA and USMCA.
We will see. I’ve actually been using AI to evaluate many well known geopoliticians’ theories. Here are a few snippets of AI’s current predictions from a dataset using all of their theories as a launchpad (I have a long way too go with adding much more hard data points to form a more data driven theory from it all):
Globalization’s Evolution
Previous: Globalization regionalizes, growing ~3% annually through 2030, driven by services and tech (70% probability).
New Data: 3.2% trade growth for 2025, ASEAN (15.2%), India (3.5%), EU (25%) leading. Tariffs divert trade to Vietnam, Mexico (; McKinsey, Jan 2025).
Analysis:
Zeihan: Overstates collapse; $33 trillion trade and 3.2% growth show resilience.
Khanna: Connectivity holds—services (7%) and FDI ($1.5 trillion globally) drive integration.
Bremmer: Nationalism (tariffs) aligns, but trade persists.
Data confirms regional hubs over global networks, with no nearshoring trend (5,000 km average trade distance).
Refined Prediction: Global trade grows 3-4% annually through 2030, reaching $40 trillion, led by Asia (45% share). Regional blocs (ASEAN, EU) dominate, with tech (AI, 5G) and services offsetting tariff losses (5-10% of flows). Probability: 75% (up due to trade stability).
U.S. Role
Previous: U.S. leads via energy (30% LNG exports) and military, growth ~2%, limited interventions (75% probability).
New Data: 2025 growth at 2.5%, LNG exports 22% of global, dollar 80% of transactions (EIA, 2025; SWIFT, 2025). Debt at 117% of GDP constrains spending (U.S. Treasury, 2025).
Analysis:
Zeihan/Kaplan: Energy ($100 billion exports) and navy ($200 billion budget) confirm strength.
Bremmer/Fukuyama: Debt and polarization (2024 unrest) limit scope.
Data balances power (dollar dominance) with constraints (2.5% growth).
Refined Prediction: U.S. holds leadership with 25% of global GDP, 30% LNG exports by 2030. Growth stays 2-2.5%, focusing on Asia-Pacific and NATO, constrained by $35 trillion debt. Probability: 75% (unchanged, data confirms balance).
Rise of Regional Powers
Previous: India (7% growth), ASEAN, Turkey shape trade, security (80% probability).
New Data: India’s 6.4% growth, $90 billion FDI, $81 billion military. ASEAN FDI $230 billion, 15.2% trade. Turkey $260 billion exports, $25 billion military (RBI, 2025; SIPRI, 2025; ASEAN Investment Report, 2025).
Analysis:
Friedman/Khanna: India ($4 trillion GDP) and ASEAN align; Turkey’s MENA role grows.
Kaplan: India’s navy (50 ships) fits maritime power.
Data confirms economic and strategic gains.
Refined Prediction: India reaches $5 trillion GDP by 2030, 8% trade share. ASEAN hits 18% trade share, Turkey 4%. All boost military (India $100 billion), shaping Asia-MENA. Probability: 85% (up due to FDI, trade data).
I agree. you can’t just go poof, and there’s a new factory. It involves planning, acquisition, and construction. plus with all the over the top tariffs, how much more is everything going to cost between building material and manufacturing equipment. In the many years meantime, vehicle sales will be down because of the higher cost of living, and how many of genius boy Shawn’s union members will be laid off or let go. Possibly the auto maker may even have to cut back employee salaries
He backed Joe Biden because Trump is anti-union. Now he backing a losing President because the next will remove those tariffs.
UAW. AKA. Unemployed Auto W
Will not be hard to bring back manufacturing here. Ford has invested billions in new EV battery plants, which now will sit idle with the EV market in the trash can!
Take one of these plants, move the equipment from Mexico, and start building Mavericks and Bronce Sports here, and another one for Lincoln production.
No tariffs on used equipment, and UAW can pit how many more workers on the lines.
To you Trump haters on here, we had to live with the Biden / Harris train wreck for four years, along with Obama and all his globalism trash!
They created this trade mess, and Trump is the only one who has the guts to fix it!
Live with it, how would things be if Harris and Waltz were in. Think about that !
Let’s be honest, in my entire adult lifetime, the Reps took us on a slow march towards more globalism and the Dems sprinted towards it. This is the first administration to actually curb it.
If Ford would build Puma E and Capri here, that battery plant would be humming. There is NO competition right now.
The UAW needs to go back in History and remember their mantra back then “If you want to sell cars in America Build them here” Well they listened and built more cars here, but down south in Non-Union plants, reducing the UAW membership considerably !! Some 50 years later many are still Non-Union. So UAW be very careful on what you support.
‘watched our manufacturing base in this country disappear’? Gee, that wouldn’t have anything to do with the hugely obscene wage increases that the UAW has negotiated over those thirty years would it?
Kiss your profit sharing goodbye while Trump continues his “short term pain”.